Almost four and a half years have passed since the beginning of what is now the deadliest conflict on European soil since 1945, yet the prospect of peace is still not on the horizon. Various analysts are trying to estimate when it all could stop, but in order to make sure that peace is actually coming to reality, we have to first examine some of the reasons why negotiations in the past have missed their ultimate goal.
First, it’s good to understand what the beginning of the war and its end mean for Putin: under his reign, Russia has become increasingly irrelevant on the world stage compared to the level of influence the Soviet Union had in global affairs during the Cold War. Before the current conflict, most states viewed Russia primarily as a business partner, while the Russian government viewed itself as an entity that could still change the shape of the world if it wished to. After all, they were right, the Kremlin did change how international relations work now, but it did not succeed in turning them strongly in its favour. Vladimir Putin knew that he had to do something to change the course of irrelevance and make the country Great Again, not just an oil seller. What happened in 2014 against Ukraine is, I believe, the moment when Putin completely stopped trying to integrate into the global system and started to wait for the moment when he could try to break it and pick up the remains. That’s why 24 February 2022 was the moment when the conflict reached a massive escalation. Depending on the result, Putin could have shown at home and to the world that he deserves to be next to the US and China as a world power figure and in order to do that, Ukraine had to be taken quickly, before anyone else could intervene or send vital military aid. The war plan failed, something which few expected, and Russia is now stuck to a WW1 style grinding conflict which it still won’t quit, because Putin needs a victory or at least to end it in a more advantageous position than before so he can save his job and show to the rest of the world that the West can be beaten militarily and forced to accept unwanted concessions.
Before 2022, there were the Minsk Accords which mostly failed, but helped the Kremlin maintain Ukraine in a ‘gray’ area by freezing the conflict so Kyiv could not obtain an EU or NATO membership since the other countries preferred financial stability instead of engaging in a difficult matter that would probably ensure political costs. Putin has used most of the negotiations during those years as a tool for stalling plans before his army could be ready for a land invasion that would crush Ukraine and annex large parts of it. Since this is what has happened, it is quite clear why Zelensky could not agree to peace during the 2022 Istanbul talks. He feared that by freezing the issue again, Russia had time to prepare for the third invasion. At that time, Putin’s troops failed to capture Kyiv and were in a position where what was planned failed. However, Ukraine was ready to give up its NATO membership goal, declare itself a permanently neutral state and even cap the size of its military, while Russia agreed to stop pushing for a regime change and had no more issues with Ukraine joining the European Union. Talks in April included a draft in which it was stated how Ukraine gives up NATO membership plans in exchange for strong security guarantees in case of another attack. Discussions stopped because Russia somehow pushed for a veto right over all the international response to any future attack on Kyiv and I have to mention that during this time, what happened in Bucha became public, raising public outrage in Ukraine and other countries. If such a draft passed, Ukraine would have to survive a possible next invasion without strong security guarantees, no NATO, probably not an EU membership and all that while giving away ownership over Crimea, Donbas and the rest of the land that was conquered. Obviously, such an option was unacceptable, so Ukraine had no choice but to continue fighting the war, since Putin was using the talks only as a legal opportunity for a way to end Ukrainian sovereignty and recognition of this from the West.
The leadership of the countries that can give Ukraine security guarantees have to understand the way Vladimir Putin thinks. He does not view Ukrainians as a real nation, uses any opportunity to avoid bilateral talks, he would rather have direct talks with the US like it’s the 1800s again, having the big powers judge the destiny over other nations. Almost 1.5 million casualties still does not change anything to himself as his own future is tied to the result of this war. Another issue regarding a future peace is about what the parts of the war hope for in the outcome. If both Russia and Ukraine were convinced that they cannot gain any leverage anymore, we would have had peace one way or another, but the strategic logic in the current conflict is basically a race over who is going to get drained of resources first, Ukraine hopes that the massive number of casualties, economic issues and sanctions will make Russia call for an agreement, while Putin hopes that Ukrainian manpower will deplete and financial and military aid from the EU and NATO will cease. At the moment, this strategy is the only effective way of winning since the frontline barely moves, and military planning has become less important.
Meanwhile, some could say that peace in Ukraine is not in the strategic interest of Europe until it can build its own army, as it gives Russia an opportunity to rebuild its massive military capacity and perhaps test the Article 5 of NATO, while it’s unclear if Donald Trump would ever order his troops to defend the Baltic countries or Poland.
The single path for Ukraine to finally have peace is by negotiating the war with stronger leverage or by simply retaking most of its territory, until then, neither Zelensky or Putin will ever agree to an outcome that does not resolve the issue and does not give them a sense of strategic victory, Ukraine needs to be sure that Russia will never be able to invade again, while it hopes to regain as much land as possible. Putin cannot simply order the troops to stop attacking since by this he would not only recognize Ukraine as a sovereign and free country, but it would also open the path for membership into the EU and NATO, this being both a strategic and political failure for him. Losing this war would push others at the Kremlin to push for a change and maybe such a change would not only be for the benefit of the Russian people, but also for the brave Ukrainian people and to the rest of the world.